The UK and China are in the world's top five in terms of economic size - the former at fifth position, and the latter sitting at number two. Despite this commonality, and a long history of engagement, they are partners who could do much more with each other.
Part of this relatively low base for their relations now is due to historic reasons. Up until 1997, the issue of Hong Kong, which was then a colony under British rule, was the focus of most of the discussions between the two countries. With its reversion to Chinese sovereignty under the One Country, Two Systems framework that year bilateral relations were reset in the rubric of 'engagement'. Even so, for the following decade the main growth area was in the increasing numbers of Chinese students coming to study in the UK - rising from 3,000 in 2000 to almost 50,000 by the end of the decade. Today, that figure stands at almost 90,000.
In most other areas, the story has been of incremental, but hardly dramatic, growth. UK investment into China has remained good, but still consists of less than 1 per cent of the whole stock of foreign direct investment into the People's Republic. Chinese investment in the UK started to appear in reasonable amounts around 2005, about the time of the last state visit when President Hu Jintao came to London. Even so, the initial excitement about this and how quickly it was likely to grow soon died down. Chinese bought stakes in Barclays Bank PLC, and then in some utility companies like Thames Water. The China Investment Corporation purchased a share of Heathrow Airport. And even brands like the breakfast cereal Weetabix and car manufacturer M G Rover were taken over by Chinese partners. But as of 2014, less than a tenth of one percent of investment in the UK is from China. It is still overwhelmingly from Europe and the US that investors come.
The UK should, and could, do much better with its relationship with China. It has many economic and cultural attributes that Chinese like - a stable financial system, highly open to outsiders, strong rule of law and predictability, and, in London, a major capital centre where, in the past, many Chinese companies listed on the stock exchange. There is now a significant cohort of Chinese who have been educated at universities across the UK, and who are conversant with Britain socially and in terms of its culture. The UK and China now have the strongest base to build a better relationship and a more impressive one.
Until now, the UK has been complacent in many ways about opportunities that China offers. Its visa system is different from other European countries, placing an impediment in the way of tourists and other visitors, meaning that fewer come than go to France or Italy. It is increasingly difficult for Chinese who have graduated from British universities to stay on work visas for a few years in the UK. Businesses in particular have criticised the current government over this. The simple fact is that in terms of China knowledge and literacy, this does not exist at a significant level within the UK. Chinese students have been an important provider of language and other knowledge assets. Making it harder for them to work in the UK has impacted on this area. One tangible outcome of the visit by President Xi Jinping could be greater liberalisation of visa approvals between both countries. A ten year visa arrangement along the lines agreed with the US last year would be a good start.
And like with the US, it would be good to see an announcement supporting British students going to study in China, and improving their Mandarin language skills. Study of China at universities in the UK is woefully low, with no major expansion in the last decade despite the rising importance of China economically, politically and diplomatically. The UK continues to have an elitist approach to studying Chinese, with largely private, fee paying schools providing Mandarin to A Level, and State Schools having far more patchy provision. 200 million Chinese are learning English. In the UK, the figure learning Mandarin comes to no more than a few thousand. And while the UK has globally recognised scholars on ancient and modern China, from the Needham Research Institute named after the great Joseph Needham in Cambridge, to Oxford, Edinburgh, and Leeds, it still only produces 300 graduates in Chinese a year, a figure than has not risen for almost a decade.
Knowledge and engagement with China needs to be higher profile in the UK. In 2008, the UK had an extensive `China Now' campaign, coinciding with the Beijing Olympics. Since then, there have been other major cultural and political engagements, with high level visits happening on both sides. But the effort has been sporadic and momentum has never been maintained. The UK through its art, premier league football, and creativity is understood and known in China. But China is less well understood and appreciated in the UK, and efforts to address this have been piecemeal. There need to be more consistent effort now.
A visit like that by the Chinese president, Xi, will give an opportunity to at least start this process. If it increases appreciation amongst British people for what is happening in China now that would be a good outcome. There is unlikely to be overnight change. The issue now is for the UK and China to use the basis they have constructed together over the last 15 years, and to accelerate. There will no doubt be announcements on investment and trade projects when Xi is in the UK. But just allowing British people to hear him speak directly to them, and to know something of the transformation and change that the country is now going through, and ways in which that relates to the UK, will be important. The symbolism of this visit, rather than hard statistics about levels of investment and trade agreed on, is what matters most. And creating a sense of interest and engagement amongst a British public that have so far been less attentive than they should to the complexity and scale of China's rise and the impact that this will have both on the world, and in particular on the UK.
(Kerry Brown, Director of China Studis centre and Professor of Chinese Politics at the University of Sydney.)